Last updateThu, 25 Feb 2021 12pm
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34,000 aftershocks expected over the next six months with a few big ones in the mix

Southern California 6.4 earthquake

(L.A. Times | Alex.Wigglesworth) - Southern California could experience another sizable earthquake over the next week, seismologists said Saturday.

The U.S. Geological Survey has calculated a 27% probability the region will be hit by a magnitude 6 or greater quake in the coming days, according to Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson.

“We're likely to see maybe one or two of those in the next week,” he said at a news conference.

The USGS estimates that the probability of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake hitting within the next week has fallen to 3%, down from 6% on Friday.

“That probability is over the next week, but it is mostly packed into the hours and days after the mainshock,” Caltech seismologist Doug Given said.

In other words, the probability that we will experience another earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is dropping by the minute, he said.

“Every minute that ticks by, it becomes less likely,” he said.

The heightened seismic activity comes in the aftermath of a 7.1 magnitude quake that hit near the town of Ridgecrest, about 125 miles northeast of Los Angeles, on Friday night. That was preceded by a 6.4 magnitude earthquake in the same area on the morning of the Fourth of July. Scientists are now calling that a foreshock.

Since the Fourth, Caltech seismologists have detected at least 3,000 smaller earthquakes. ... continued.

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